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Climate change doubles probability of intense hurricanes, study says


TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) — Hurricane season is less than three weeks away and there’s new research into how hurricanes are changing in a warmer world.

The authors of paper published in late April used computer models to simulate how the risk of being hit by an intense hurricane will change during the next three decades.

The results are alarming.

Max Defender 8’s Jeff Berardelli spoke to the lead author of the study, Dr. Nadia Bloemendaal , from Free University of Amsterdam, about her results.

“In most places the probability of experiencing a severe tropical cyclone condition, I’m talking about category 3 wind speeds or up, more than doubles compared to the 1980-2017 climate conditions,” Bloemendaal said. Study in Science Advances finds more intense tropical cyclones. Image credit: WFLA To reach these results her team used a statistical model called STORM to generate 10,000 years of synthetic (computer generated) tropical cyclones under the climate conditions from 1980–2017. To check the technique’s accuracy they verified that the distribution of tropical cyclones generated, in terms of number, intensity and geography, were approximately the same as the historical record.

Her team then extended that technique into the warmer present and future (2015 to 2050) conditions. To ensure balance, […]

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